Irish House prices - very hard to call what will happen

15 December 2020
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A recent headline announced that Fitch - the international credit rating agency anticipated that house prices in Ireland could fall by up to 4% over the next two years, assuming a no deal Brexit and as a consequence of the impact of the Covid pandemic.

In early 2020, at the start of the pandemic it was anticipated by some lenders that prices could fall by as much as 12% over a two year period.

Strangely house prices, driven by demand, actually increased during the pandemic for a range of reasons including::

  • Low interest rates 
  • Poor housing supply
  • High rents 
  • Economic activity in many sectors was not hit by the Pandemic

So the question is what is going to happen next year.

It we take the Fitch prediction and instead of a no deal Brexit, a deal is done, this would imply a fall in house price reductions over the next two years of less than 4%.

Uncertainty abounds, but the vaccine and the possibility of a Brexit deal gives us hope.